The Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend in Q2 2026 showed a significant increase across major global markets compared with the previous quarter. Higher production costs, rising nitric acid prices, strong agricultural demand, and geopolitical tensions were the main factors behind this upward movement. 

Ammonium nitrate is an important nitrogen-based fertilizer used in agriculture, and its prices are closely connected to raw material availability, energy expenses, seasonal farming requirements, and international trade. During the second quarter of 2026, prices increased in Russia, Bulgaria, the USA, and Brazil. 

However, the market also experienced a correction in June as seasonal buying activity slowed and energy costs eased compared with May. These changes made Q2 2026 an important period for understanding global fertilizer market movements.

👉 👉 👉 Please submit your query to get Ammonium Nitrate price trend, forecast, and market price analysis: https://www.price-watch.ai/book-a-demo/ 

Ammonium Nitrate Market Overview in Q2 2026

The second quarter of 2026 was a period of strong price movement in the global ammonium nitrate market. Prices increased as agricultural buyers secured supplies for seasonal requirements, while manufacturers faced higher raw material and energy costs.

Overall, the supplied market assessment indicated an approximate 45% increase in ammonium nitrate prices compared with Q1 2026. However, price movements varied across regions because of differences in production costs, local demand, import requirements, and supply conditions.

Agricultural demand remained firm as buyers prepared for seasonal fertilizer needs. At the same time, higher nitric acid prices increased manufacturing expenses, while elevated energy costs placed additional pressure on producers. Production remained moderate, limiting the scope for a substantial increase in supply.

Geopolitical tensions and international trade disruptions also created uncertainty around raw material availability and transportation. These factors contributed to tighter market conditions during much of the quarter.

However, the upward movement did not continue at the same pace throughout the period. In June, prices declined in all four assessed markets as seasonal purchasing activity slowed and energy costs decreased compared with May.

Key Factors Affecting Ammonium Nitrate Prices

1. Rising Nitric Acid Prices

Nitric acid is an important raw material used in ammonium nitrate production. When nitric acid prices rise, manufacturers face higher production expenses, which can place upward pressure on the final product price.

During Q2 2026, nitric acid prices strengthened because upstream availability became tighter. This increased manufacturing costs across several major producing regions.

Higher feedstock expenses can affect producers' profit margins and influence their selling decisions. When demand remains strong, manufacturers may find it easier to pass some of these additional costs on to buyers.

For this reason, rising nitric acid prices were one of the main factors supporting the increase in Ammonium Nitrate Prices during the quarter.

2. Higher Energy and Manufacturing Costs

Energy costs are another important part of fertilizer production. Manufacturing facilities need reliable energy supplies to maintain operations, and higher energy prices can increase overall operating expenses.

During Q2 2026, elevated global energy costs added pressure to ammonium nitrate producers. Manufacturers had to manage these additional expenses while maintaining relatively stable operating rates.

When production becomes more expensive, suppliers may have less flexibility to offer lower prices, particularly when the market is already experiencing strong demand.

Energy costs can also affect transportation and other supply chain activities, adding further pressure to the final price paid by buyers.

3. Strong Agricultural Demand

Agricultural demand remained an important source of support for the ammonium nitrate market during Q2 2026. Farmers and fertilizer distributors generally plan their purchases around planting schedules and expected crop requirements.

Before seasonal planting periods, buyers often try to secure sufficient fertilizer supplies in advance. This can increase purchasing activity within a relatively short time and support prices.

During the quarter, buyers actively secured inventories amid concerns about tighter supply conditions. This demand helped maintain upward pressure on prices even as manufacturers faced higher operating expenses.

However, agricultural demand can change once the main buying period passes. The decline in prices observed in June showed how reduced purchasing activity can influence the market after peak seasonal demand.

4. Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Disruptions

Geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in March 2026 affected global trade flows and contributed to concerns about raw material availability.

International supply disruptions can make transportation less predictable and create uncertainty around delivery schedules. They may also affect the availability and cost of energy and industrial inputs.

When buyers become concerned about future supplies, they may increase purchases earlier than planned. This can add pressure to prices, particularly when manufacturers are already dealing with higher production costs.

These developments contributed to the tight supply conditions observed in the ammonium nitrate market during Q2 2026.

Regional Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend in Q2 2026

Russia: Prices Increased by 45%

In Russia, ammonium nitrate export prices on an FOB St. Petersburg basis increased by approximately 45% in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026.

The increase was supported by higher nitric acid prices, elevated energy expenses, and strong agricultural demand. Buyers prepared for seasonal fertilizer requirements, while manufacturers managed higher production costs.

Geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international trade flows also contributed to tighter market conditions. Although domestic production remained relatively stable, higher input costs and limited supply flexibility supported the upward price movement.

However, the market changed direction in June. Russian ammonium nitrate prices declined by approximately 18% compared with May, reflecting weaker demand after the peak seasonal buying period and lower energy costs.

This movement demonstrates how seasonal purchasing patterns can influence fertilizer prices even after a strong quarterly increase.

Bulgaria: Prices Increased by 52%

Bulgaria recorded the largest quarterly increase among the four markets covered in the supplied assessment. Ammonium nitrate export prices on an FOB Varna basis increased by approximately 52% in Q2 2026 compared with the previous quarter.

Higher nitric acid prices and elevated energy expenses increased manufacturing costs. At the same time, agricultural demand remained firm as buyers prepared for seasonal fertilizer requirements.

Production remained moderate as manufacturers managed higher operating expenses and logistical challenges. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international trade also affected raw material availability and regional supply conditions.

In June 2026, prices declined by approximately 18% compared with May. The decrease was linked to reduced purchasing activity after the peak seasonal buying period and lower energy costs.

Despite this correction, Bulgaria recorded the strongest quarterly price increase among the assessed markets. Its performance highlights the combined influence of production costs, agricultural demand, and supply chain conditions.

USA: Prices Increased by 32%

In the United States, ammonium nitrate prices at FOB New Orleans increased by approximately 32% in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026.

Higher nitric acid prices and elevated energy costs increased manufacturing expenses. Demand also strengthened ahead of seasonal agricultural requirements, encouraging buyers to secure sufficient fertilizer supplies.

Manufacturers maintained relatively stable operating rates, but higher input costs limited their ability to increase production significantly. International trade disruptions and concerns about raw material availability further supported market prices.

In June, US ammonium nitrate prices declined by approximately 12% compared with May. The decline reflected weaker purchasing activity after the peak seasonal buying period and lower energy costs.

Although the quarterly increase was smaller than in the other three assessed markets, the USA still experienced considerable price pressure during Q2 2026.

Brazil: Prices Increased by 45%

In Brazil, imported ammonium nitrate prices on a CIF Santos basis for material sourced from Russia increased by approximately 45% in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026.

Higher nitric acid prices and elevated energy expenses increased production costs, while import-related expenses contributed to the final delivered price. Agricultural demand remained strong, supporting the need for fertilizer supplies.

As an import-dependent market for the material covered in this assessment, Brazil was also affected by international trade conditions. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions created uncertainty around the availability and movement of imported supplies.

Domestic production remained stable, while imports helped supplement local demand. These conditions made international prices and transportation costs important influences on the Brazilian market.

In June 2026, imported ammonium nitrate prices declined by approximately 18% compared with May as seasonal buying activity slowed and energy costs eased.

Brazil's price movement highlights the importance of global supply conditions when evaluating fertilizer prices in import-dependent markets.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Chart: Regional Price Comparison

The regional Ammonium Nitrate Price Chart for Q2 2026 shows that Bulgaria experienced the largest increase, at approximately 52% compared with Q1 2026. Russia and Brazil both recorded increases of around 45%, while the USA experienced a rise of approximately 32%.

These figures show that the upward movement affected all four assessed markets, although the strength of the increase differed by region.

Bulgaria's stronger price movement reflected the combined influence of higher production costs, firm agricultural demand, and logistical challenges. Russia and Brazil experienced similar percentage increases, although their market structures and assessment bases differed. In the USA, higher manufacturing expenses and seasonal demand supported prices, but the reported quarterly increase was comparatively moderate.

It is important to understand that these figures represent percentage changes rather than actual prices per tonne. The Russian, Bulgarian, and US assessments are based on FOB export prices, while Brazil's assessment is based on CIF import prices at Santos. Differences in freight, insurance, and other costs mean that these figures should not be treated as directly comparable absolute price levels.

The June corrections also form an important part of the price picture. Russia, Bulgaria, and Brazil recorded declines of approximately 18%, while the USA recorded a decline of approximately 12% compared with May. These changes suggest that seasonal demand and easing energy costs helped reduce some of the pressure that had built up earlier in the quarter.

Understanding the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index

The Ammonium Nitrate Price Index helps readers understand how market prices change over time. An index measures price movements against a selected reference period, making it easier to identify whether prices are increasing, decreasing, or remaining relatively stable.

For example, if a hypothetical price index starts at 100 and increases by 45%, it would reach 145, assuming the same index methodology and reference period. This is only an illustration of how an index works and is not an actual reported index value for Q2 2026.

During the second quarter of 2026, higher nitric acid costs, elevated energy expenses, strong agricultural demand, and supply uncertainty supported the upward movement in the ammonium nitrate market.

However, a price index does not mean that every region has the same price level. Local production expenses, freight, import costs, contract terms, and demand conditions can all influence actual transaction prices.

For buyers and businesses, the most useful approach is to consider the index alongside regional price assessments. This provides a clearer picture of both the overall market direction and the conditions affecting individual markets.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast: Market Outlook

The future direction of ammonium nitrate prices will depend on feedstock availability, energy expenses, seasonal agricultural demand, and international trade conditions.

If nitric acid supplies improve and prices become more stable, manufacturers may experience some relief in production costs. Lower energy expenses could also help reduce pressure on selling prices.

Seasonal demand will remain another important factor. Once buyers complete their main fertilizer purchases, demand may soften and prices could face downward pressure. The June declines reported in Russia, Bulgaria, the USA, and Brazil demonstrate how quickly the market can respond when seasonal buying activity slows.

However, the outlook could change if raw material supplies become tighter again or geopolitical tensions create further trade disruptions. Higher freight costs and renewed increases in energy prices could also limit any potential decline.

Based on the Q2 2026 market information, a balanced outlook is appropriate. Prices may ease if supply availability improves, energy costs remain lower, and seasonal demand weakens. However, continued feedstock cost pressure or new supply disruptions could keep prices elevated.

This forecast is conditional rather than a confirmed prediction. Future market movements will depend on developments in individual regions, and the quarterly price increases alone cannot determine the exact direction or level of prices in the coming months.

What Buyers and Businesses Should Monitor

Businesses purchasing ammonium nitrate can better understand market movements by following several indicators together.

First, nitric acid prices deserve attention because changes in feedstock costs can influence manufacturing expenses. Second, energy prices should be monitored because they affect production and other supply chain costs.

👉 👉 👉 Please submit your query to get Ammonium Nitrate price trend, forecast, and market price analysis: https://www.price-watch.ai/book-a-demo/ 

Third, seasonal agricultural demand can provide useful information about potential changes in buying activity. Strong purchasing before planting periods may support prices, while weaker demand after the main buying season may contribute to price corrections.

Fourth, international trade conditions are important, particularly for import-dependent markets. Shipping availability, freight costs, and geopolitical developments can affect both supply reliability and delivered prices.

Finally, businesses should understand the difference between FOB and CIF assessments when comparing regional markets. FOB prices generally refer to goods at the export point, while CIF prices include cost, insurance, and freight to the named destination.

Monitoring these factors together can help buyers understand changes in the Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend and make more informed purchasing decisions.

The Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend in Q2 2026 showed a significant increase across four major markets. Compared with Q1 2026, prices rose by approximately 45% in Russia, 52% in Bulgaria, 32% in the USA, and 45% in Brazil.

Higher nitric acid prices, elevated energy expenses, firm agricultural demand, and geopolitical supply disruptions were the main factors behind this upward movement. Manufacturers faced higher production costs while buyers worked to secure fertilizer supplies for seasonal agricultural requirements.

However, June brought a noticeable correction, with prices declining by approximately 18% in Russia, Bulgaria, and Brazil, and 12% in the USA. Reduced seasonal purchasing activity and lower energy costs compared with May contributed to this change.

The Ammonium Nitrate Price Chart provides a useful regional comparison, while the Ammonium Nitrate Price Index helps explain changes in market direction over time. Looking ahead, feedstock availability, energy expenses, agricultural demand, and international trade conditions will remain important factors influencing Ammonium Nitrate Prices.

Overall, Q2 2026 demonstrated how quickly fertilizer prices can change when strong demand meets higher production costs and restricted supply. At the same time, the June correction showed that seasonal changes and easing expenses can influence prices in the opposite direction. Following regional market conditions and key cost indicators will remain important for understanding future price movements and making better-informed business decisions.

About Price-Watch™ 

Price Watch™ is an India-based, independent raw material price reporting agency that provides real-time price forecasts and data-driven insights into global raw material markets. Price Watch™ specializes in tracking raw material prices, analyzing market trends, and delivering timely updates on plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, capacity expansions, and demand-supply dynamics. The Price Watch™ platform empowers manufacturers, traders, and procurement professionals to make faster, smarter decisions. Leveraging AI-powered forecasting and over a decade of historical data, Price Watch™ transforms market volatility into actionable opportunity. 

Futura Tech Park,

C Block, 8th floor 334,

Old Mahabalipuram Road,

Sholinganallur, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, Pincode - 600119.

𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐝𝐈𝐧: https://www.linkedin.com/company/price-watch-ai/

𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤: https://www.facebook.com/people/Price-Watch/61568490385598/

𝐓𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫:  https://x.com/pricewatchai

𝐖𝐞𝐛𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞: https://www.price-watch.ai/